ICM - what is this?
Let's take an extreme example to demonstrate the difference between chips and prize money:
Presume that on a live SnG tournament - where the top three gets paid $500, $300, $200 respectively - after a three way allin only four players left:
| Player 1 | 9990 | SB (200) | |
| Player 2 | 9990 | BB (400) | |
| Player 3 | 10 | UTG | |
| Player 4 | 10 | Button |
We can see at first glance that it is very-very likely that player1 and player2 will fight for the top two prizes, and player3 and player4 will be on place 3 and 4. Since the fourth place pays nothing and third place plays $200 player3 and player4 will win $200 together, so their expected value is $100 per capita. It is just the same with player1 and player2, their expected value is $400 per capita in this situation.
Presume that in the next hand the shortstacks both fold, and player1 goes allin without looking at his cards. Player2 holds AKs. In cash games this would be an easy call, since AKs has 67% win rate against a random hand, as it would double up at two from three times.
But this is a different situation. We don't double up our money on a tournament, just our chips!
Let's see what happens if player2 accepts the all-in:
AKs looses in 33% of the cases, he is out from the tournament and wins nothing. He wins in the rest 67%, doubles up and practically secures his first place, which means $500. The expected value is 0,67*$500=$335.
If he folds his AKs, he looses his blind, which reduces his expected value with a few dollars ($5 exactly). After the fold $395 is expected to be won, but after the call it is only $335.
Conclusion is that in this given tournament situation - unlike is cash games - fold is the proper play.
